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10.12.07

Scientific Group Wins Peace Prize

Michael Tobis by Michael Tobis     Department: Science & Society

The Nobel Committee announced the award of this year's Peace Prize jointly to Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Gore is cited by the committee as " probably the single individual who has done most to create greater worldwide understanding of the measures that need to be adopted." Much attention will be duly given to Gore's role in doing exactly that, especially in the US. Still, it would be a shame if the attention to Gore's contribution completely distracts attention away from his co-recipient, the IPCC.

 Organizations have won the Nobel Peace Prize from the beginning, the first case bing that of the Institute of International Law in 1904, which was the fourth Peace Prize. This year, though, marks the first time that a scientific organization has won the Peace Prize. What is behind this remarkable achievement?

The committee's "citation" states:
Through the scientific reports it has issued over the past two decades, the IPCC has created an ever-broader informed consensus about the connection between human activities and global warming.

Thousands of scientists and officials from over 100 countries have collaborated to achieve greater certainty as to the scale of the warming.

The achievement of the IPCC in distilling the state of science for consumption by the policy sector is not widely understood or appreciated. Some, who resist the conclusions of science, especially those who want to delay responding, often dismiss IPCC as "political" or "bureaucratic", prompting others to defend it as "scientific". I think the attacks and the defenses both miss the mark.

Trying to summarize the whole of science as input to policy is definitely a political process, in the sense that positions are held, alliances are forged, compromises are reached. Neither the process nor its output are perfect in any sense, being subject to human frailties of all sorts. Nonetheless, the results are substantial, detailed and open about what is known and what is unknown.

Probably the most important thing to understand about the process is that scientists participate in it at personal cost to themselves. Time spent on the IPCC process is usually covered by the base salary of their institutions, but is not counted in their research portfolio or their reports to grant agencies. For self-interested purposes it weakens their competive position for funding and in some cases even for internal promotion. Yet thousands of scientists from around the world participate, slog through the arguments, and produce summaries of the state of knowledge that are authoritative and useful.

The IPCC reports are available online, and are aimed at a serious but not necessarily expert audience. See them for yourself online.

Update: There's lots of stuff elsewhere on the web about this. You may be especially interested in fellow-Correlator Clifford Johnson's interesting and enthusiastic piece.

Tags: climate, IPCC, nobel prize

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Gee, why wouldn't reasonable people believe in your global warming belief system? http://gallery.surfacestations.org/main.php

Reasonable people can disagree but not the faithful of Anthropogenic Global Warming. They KNOW they are right. They don't need any peer review. They don't even know what that means.

You cannot have peer review until Hansen reveals his magic for skewing the tempurature data. And that hasn't been done. So until he reveals how he cooks the data then the data is worthless for peer review. And that means it isn't science. A real scientist discusses things and promotes skepticism. Rainmakers like Hansen refuse to allow peer review; so what is he hiding? When will he reveal his methods? Does he think he is some kind of magician who needs to hide his tricks? That is what he has been doing; hiding behind computer models that he refuses to detail.

As I said in my first posting,

http://www.pbs.org/kcet/wiredscience/blogs/2007/09/climate-science-is-the-most-im.html#more

I don't choose to get into this sort of debate here. I am here to discuss the nature of climate science as the climate community I know understands it. This sort of contentious discussion tends to distort discussion of what we know about the climate system.

It is conceivable, though I certainly don't believe it, that the scientific community is totally wrong. That is a matter worth discussing, but I do not choose to discuss it here.

I am very willing to discuss this matter on my personal blog, http://initforthegold.blogspot.com , and there are many other places for such discussion.

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