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I was concerned about it. I was responsible for going to Capitol Hill to persuade my former colleagues to continue supporting our peacekeeping mission in Bosnia. It's not inexpensive--it runs almost $2 billion a year. It has always been controversial in terms of the length of stay, and at what point do we depart. The notion of becoming involved in Kosovo certainly presented a number of challenges in terms of readiness of resources, the manpower that would be involved, the commitment of our troops for what length of time, and how we pay for it. Those are all issues that certainly were in my mind in addition to what was taking place over there. One of my biggest concerns was whether or not the NATO allies were willing to invest in any kind of a campaign. I was absolutely convinced that the United States could not afford to take any kind of unilateral action from a political point of view, and certainly we were not going to recommend to the president and to the Congress that we intervene unilaterally without NATO consensus and support. There was a long debate for months, beginning in 1998, over whether NATO had any legal authority to take action.
I spent a considerable amount of time dealing with my colleagues at the defense
minister level, who were concerned about potential instability spreading, with
an influx of refugees coming into their countries--then they'd have to be
willing to take action to defend the integrity of their own borders. At that
point, the overwhelming majority said they couldn't take any action without a
UN Security Council resolution. My point was that if that's the argument and
that's your position, in all likelihood, no action would be taken. It's
probably unreasonable to expect the Security Council to authorize any kind of
military action to prevent what is taking place. So it became a debate over
the issue of legal authority. I tried to prepare my colleagues in NATO that if
they're going to take action, they must be willing to take strong action, and
consider all of the options. That started way back in the spring of 1998.
My concern was that NATO not be seen as the air force of the KLA. If any kind
of action were to be taken, it must be consistent with making sure that we were
entirely neutral, and that the KLA not use NATO to serve its own purposes. For
many months, I made the statement that we would not be the air force for the
KLA--they must be willing to come to an agreement with Mr. Milosevic and his
forces, and we were not going to intervene on their behalf with military
force.
It was at the heart of it, to the extent that NATO was constantly telling
Milosevic he could not do what he was doing. I was cautioning not to make
empty threats, without the ability to back up those threats. We had to be
prepared to back threats up with military force. | |||||||||
We spent several months debating the issue in terms of the legal authority to
take any action. Also, we were trying to get what's called an "act toward,"
which is an action order giving the secretary general of NATO the authority to
take action on a limited strike, and then for a phased air campaign.
In connection with an "act toward," at the end of September, there was a meeting after a particular massacre of 14-or-so Albanians. It was very horrendous, and it was on the front page of the New York Times. So the principals met about what to do. Secretary Albright was pushing fairly forcefully for the use of force--that basically, it was time to put an ultimatum to Milosevic. You were arguing against the commitment of US ground troops, even as peacekeepers, at that moment. Help me understand why that was your position.
No, actually I argued to my colleagues that we should consider all options,
including the ground option. Throughout the summer months when we were talking
about this, I said we should not rule anything out. It became clear to me that
there was no consensus, and we needed unanimous support for doing this. When
it became clear that we were not going to have that consensus, I was not going
to advocate that the United States commit ground forces to such a conflict.
There was great reluctance on the part of most members of Congress to commit
American forces, even on a peacekeeping mission.
At that time we were, again, trying to hold the coalition together. We wanted
to make sure that if we were going to threaten to take military action, that
we'd be prepared to carry it through. Along with the chairman of the joint
chiefs and General Clark, we put together planning options. We had to make
sure that we had support here at home to go forward, and we also had to hold
the coalition together. The Racak massacre really galvanized the decision to
take action ultimately, and to tell Milosevic that either he should negotiate,
or face the real prospect of having an air campaign launched against his
forces.
The Racak massacre served as a galvanizing and rallying point for the NATO
allies, saying we've had enough of Milosevic lying and misrepresenting himself
to NATO, and to the world--that this could not stand. So it was sort of the
galvanizing event.
It didn't change my thinking. I felt that military force should be the absolute last resort. Everything else has to fail before you turn to the military. And if you do turn to the military, you must be very clear on what the objectives are, measuring those political objectives, and how military action can be consistent with carrying out and furthering those goals. I want to be very clear that we have domestic support before we ever commit our forces to combat. It's always important to get the support domestically before you go into battle, rather than trying to seek it afterwards. Also, we must have the support of the allies.
I tried to press the point all the way through that, if you're going to take
action, if you take Step A, you must be willing to go to all the way through to
Step Z, until you are successful. That took a lot of nurturing and a lot of
phone calls, almost daily NATO meetings, and personal relationships to make
sure that we continued to solidify those positions.
I told the president exactly what I'm saying now--that this was going to be a
difficult campaign. Due to the nature of the targets that needed to be
attacked, the weather was going to be a great impediment. Out of the 78 days,
we had only 24 or 25 with an absence of cloud cover, so that we could have
action missions carried out without calling back some of our forces. You had
very mountainous regions, heavily defended, with bad weather, and we were going
to have to operate basically at night. This was not going to be easy.
That is not exactly accurate. We had a vast array of targets from the very
beginning. We looked at the phased air campaign, going from within Kosovo,
into the former Republic of Yugoslavia, and all the way to Belgrade. We had
many targets laid out. There were political constraints that precluded the air
force from carrying out and attacking those targets in a certain time frame.
But we had the targets set. The problem was the political restraints that were
exercised by the various members of the alliance.
Acting unilaterally, I would say that's precisely the kind of air campaign that
you'd want--hit fast and hard, and cripple Milosevic's forces as soon as
possible. The difference here, of course, is that we're acting as an alliance.
This had never been done before, not really even in Desert Storm, which
basically was a US operation, even though you had many countries that were
participating. In this particular case, you had to have a consensus of all 19
countries. Therefore, it was not possible to carry out the kind of classic air
campaign that the professionals wanted. If I had to act unilaterally, we would
have used that type of campaign. But you have to have the support of all of
the allies. You need basing support, bedding down of the aircraft, and
supplies and logistics flowing through their countries. Given that they had a
different historical, cultural, economic or religious tie to the former
Republic of Yugoslavia, it made it that much more difficult. So, from a
classic point of view, if we were to carry out and act unilaterally, we would
have used a much more robust, aggressive, and decapitating type of campaign.
But under the circumstances, we were trying to hold that consensus together,
because without the consensus, there could be no air campaign.
We tried to be as aggressive as we could in trying to move as quickly as we can
to get these various targets. But it was hard to get that consensus until
after the summit. NATO has never done this before. So it was a real learning
experience, in terms of getting the consent, the consensus, and running various
targets by the leadership. Finally, when the summit came about, we said we
have to get much more authority to our military planners; we could not have
micromanagement and oversight of a military campaign if we're going to be
successful. It was after the summit that things really started to change. We
started to have a much more aggressive air campaign coming from 360 degrees,
and really starting to pound the strategic targets belonging to Milosevic.
All during that first month, we talked about this. My position was we had to intensify it, and to be aggressive as possible. I tried to urge that particular course of action within the alliance. The president certainly was supportive of our recommendation to him. But one thing that we were absolutely convinced of is that we could not afford to fail. We had to succeed, and at all costs, so there were differences of opinion at that point. A number of members started to say, "Well, you should have planned for a ground campaign." That's true; ordinarily, you would have planned for a ground campaign. But if you don't have a consensus for it, you don't want to offer something up that you know can't be performed.
Also, if you start planning a ground campaign, you have to start preparing for
it. You don't want to have a plan on the shelf, yet say "We don't make
preparations for it." Preparations would have meant 150,000-200,000 troops,
most of which would have come from us. We had a lack of enthusiasm for even a
peacekeeping mission in Kosovo. So it became very clear to me that it was
going to be a very hard sell, if not impossible, to persuade the American
people that we were going to put up 150,000 or 200,000 American troops to go in
on the ground.
And if you don't have a consensus for a ground campaign, then you shouldn't try
to hold out the illusion that you have one. And that was exactly what we found
ourselves with. There was an assessment back in September of 1998 of what a
ground campaign might look like. There was no consensus to follow through on
that assessment. So in the spring of 1999, we asked General Clark to start to
update that assessment. We went to the secretary general to get his authority
for General Clark to update the assessment. But the fact remains that a ground
campaign would have taken months to put together, and would have required the
consensus of the allies, which it didn't have, even as late as April or May.
There was a split of opinion. The majority was opposed to the land campaign.
But there were some members of the Senate and the House who said we at least
ought to have a land option. They didn't ask for a commitment of land troops,
but simply said you should have the option. Again, if you have a land campaign
as an option, as a plan, you really have to start preparing for it. Otherwise
it's an empty gesture, and empty gestures don't persuade your adversary that
you're serious. So that's the situation we found ourselves in.
I supported General Clark when he requested the Apaches. We found ourselves in
a situation where the weather was so sucked in that our aircraft couldn't get
at Milosevic's tanks and heavy artillery. So when General Clark requested it,
I approved it, and recommended to the president that he also agree. Both the
chairman and myself made that recommendation. We did not realize at the time
that it would take almost a month for the Apaches to get down to Tirana,
because the airstrip at that point was pretty rudimentary, to say the least.
It took considerable effort--brilliant effort--on the part of our military
forces to upgrade that strip, and to turn it into something that the Apaches
could operate out of. So all of that combined took about a month's time.
It was a factor. But I felt that the commander in chief for the operations
should have every asset available that he felt was necessary. What changed was
the weather started to break. We made the determination that it was an undue
risk to the Apache pilots under the circumstances, where we could use unmanned
aerial vehicles that could loiter over the area. Milosevic had changed his
tactics. Instead of massing his tanks, he had dispersed them up against
civilian areas. So, we made the determination that Apaches can't loiter--they
have limited fuel supply--they have to go in, attack and get back up. You
could actually put the Predators and others up there. They can loiter and pick
out targets, which they then call back to our air force, and the air force
would go in. Once they spotted a tank or heavy equipment, they'd go in and
zero in on it. We felt that was a much more responsible course of action. So
the weather changed, the circumstances changed, the tactics changed and,
therefore, we decided not to go forward with the Apaches.
I told the president that General Clark had made an updated assessment-- where
the troops would have to operate from, how many there would be, how long it
would take to get them prepared, and the fact that there was no consensus
within the alliance for such a land campaign. All of that weighed very heavily
on him. He certainly was aware that we had to succeed. He also supported us
in saying, let's stay the course, given the options in some of the updated
assessment. I did make a quick visit over to Europe to meet with several of my
counterparts. Again, it became clear, even during that time frame, that there
was absolutely no consensus for a land campaign. So . . .
The chiefs were split. There was strong opposition within the ranks as such.
If you look at the terrain, you can understand why. I have seen it, and I
think it would have been a very difficult campaign. There were bridges where
they could have been dropped, with Milosevic's forces up in the hills just
zeroing down on our forces. There could have been substantial casualties. And
if we had started to suffer substantial casualties, I am convinced it would
have turned into quite a contentious issue up on the Hill. At that point,
holding the support of Capitol Hill as well as within the coalition would have
been quite a challenge.
I was asked to stop and visit with several of my colleagues who were meeting in
Bonn at that time. That was preliminary to another meeting of the European
members, and they asked me to come over and just kind of review to that
point--where were we, what needed to be done, and was there any consensus for
changing the game plan. And there was none. It was "stay the course"--that we
had to intensify the air campaign, that we had to succeed, and we would do
whatever was necessary to succeed. The purpose of the meeting was to solidify
the relationships. What became critical during this period of time were the
personal relationships that I had established with each of the defense
ministers of the key countries. It was the defense ministers of my NATO allies
that I was on the phone with, and they're the ones who were most actively
engaged in the combat missions almost on a daily basis.
If you were going to have a land campaign, then you had to start preparing for
it. The preparation would have taken several months. We were looking at when
the winter would start to set in Kosovo, and what would that have done in terms
of moving heavy vehicles, et cetera, into the region. So there was a timeline.
If you were going to have a land campaign, this is when we would have to start
to move. It became fairly close in that time frame.
It was close. But in terms of whether you could meet the timeline, it was not
close. It was never a close call in getting a consensus to put land forces in.
There may have been one or two countries that said they'd be supportive. But
out of the 19 total, I doubt very much whether we could have gotten the
consensus. I'm convinced we could not have.
They were not in the meetings that I attended, dealing with my colleagues at that time, nor in the meetings that Secretary Albright had with her counterparts, or in the conversations the president had with heads of state. I think it's easy to sit on the sidelines and say, if only we had led, they would have followed. But none of those people were part of these conversations. We found strong opposition. I point out again that there were vast differences in cultural, historical, religious, and economic ties to that region. It would have been very difficult to get the support of countries that were under enormous domestic pressure to not even participate in any way in Kosovo, and we'd want to shut down their ports, their airstrips, to deny bedding down rights, et cetera.
Those who said if we had only led, others would have followed, fail to
appreciate the intensity of the opposition within those countries. We were
able to hold the consensus for the air campaign under very trying circumstances
for many countries. It's a great tribute to them, but also a great tribute to
the leadership of the president, and the national security team.
As peacekeepers, I was concerned that we were, once again, going to involve
ourselves in an area where a peacekeeping mission would be lengthy in duration,
and very costly. We'd find ourselves in a situation where we have a smaller
force, because of the reductions in force structure at the end of the Cold War
where people were looking for a peace dividend. Understandably, we had cut the
size of our force by nearly a third. We had cut our procurement by two-thirds,
and we are now in the process of trying to rebuild that back up. But I did not
want to add additional strains.
He was sensitive to this because, after all, the president made a commitment
initially in Bosnia for a year. Then I came in and said, well, another 18
months. Then we found that, again, the situation had not evolved to the point
where we could justifiably remove our troops, and not face a situation where
Bosnia started to collapse. We'd made great progress in Bosnia. We've come
from 20,000 troops down to below 5,000. We're down well below that. But it's
taken more years, four or five years now. So the president was very much aware
of not wanting to get engaged in another long-term commitment.
Exactly. It was strong concern about getting involved. They were concerned
about the prospect of up to 400,000 people being driven from their homes with
the clothes on their back and no food, and NATO sitting on the sidelines
saying, "That's their tough condition, but it's none of our business." They
were concerned about that, in terms of the implications for NATO itself, and
for our own sense of responsibility--not to sit on the sidelines while hundreds
of thousands of people starved to death or froze to death. So there was a
mixed emotion there, saying we had to do something. But there was general
apprehension about possibly getting involved in another long-term
commitment.
Initially, we got a call from General Clark, who indicated that they had
departed and were on their way into the airfield. The question surfaced: what
do we do about it? We considered blocking the runway so they couldn't be
reinforced. The commander on the ground objected to that. So it became
something of a dispute over what action should be taken. The conclusion was
that, with no logistical supply, they couldn't be sustained. They arrived
without food or water to sustain them. So the judgment was made at that time
that we can handle it, it's not that important, let's not raise it to a
confrontational level with the Russians. It worked out satisfactorily. When
they got there, they could not be supplied. They had to get food and water. I
think the Germans had to supply them at that time. So we were able to work our
way through it. But initially, it was unclear exactly what their motivation
was--whether others would follow, whether this was just a spearhead of a larger
Russian force coming in, and what action, if any, would we take if that
followed.
One can never be entirely sure about this. But then-President Yeltsin
indicated that he had given authority to the military to take action. It was
unclear whether they were anxious to be a part of it when they rolled into the
airfield. They had KFOR printed on their vehicles, so it was unclear whether
that was real commitment to KFOR, and they wanted to be part of the
action--whether they felt that they were being shunted aside, and not being
allowed to play a role. I think they had felt neglected in terms of their role
in Kosovo, and wanted to play an active role. So we accepted that.
There were some that felt that it would be a very short campaign. But from the
beginning, I said, "We can't count on that. We have to prepare an entire
panoply of targets. In fact, target sets were developed from the very
beginning that would have allowed our aircraft to go all the way from Kosovo to
Belgrade. The constraints were political constraints. They were imposed so
that even though sets had been developed, our pilots were not allowed to carry
them out, because of the political objections within the alliance itself. It
took about a month to work through that, and it did, in fact, extend the
campaign, and increased the risk to the pilots who were flying. From an ideal
point of view, we should have taken a different course of action, namely, much
more aggressive, and much more intensive in going at the heart of the matter,
rather than on the periphery. But we had to hold the consensus, otherwise we'd
have no campaign, and Milosevic's forces would have achieved their objectives.
As it was, we achieved ours. His forces were out, the Kosovo Albanians are
back, and they are now going through the process of establishing their
political autonomy.
No. As a matter of fact, the lesson's just the opposite. Incrementalism
should not be the chosen course of action--just the opposite. In this
particular circumstance, since NATO had never really acted in an offensive way
as opposed to a defensive alliance, it took some time to sort out the
responsibilities and how the air campaign should be conducted. This is not a
lesson for the future on how to conduct an air campaign. We were very good,
and we were very lucky. But this is not a game plan that should be followed in
the future. If you're going to take coalition action--and our policy should be
that we are always willing to work with our allies wherever possible--we must
reserve the right to act unilaterally whenever it's necessary. In this
particular case, we could not have carried out an air campaign unilaterally.
It was simply impossible. So we had to make the compromises we did. We were
successful ultimately, but there were lessons to be learned from all of
this.
I certainly hope it's not going to be an open-ended commitment. The encampment
does represent a significant commitment for the housing of the troops that are
there. We want to make sure that we provide as much of a quality of life while
the forces, both active and reserve, are deployed to that region. But I don't
want to see an open-ended commitment to Kosovo.
As far as I'm concerned, it shouldn't be seen as a permanent commitment.
Whatever facilities are there may be taken over by others in the future. But
it certainly will provide the kind of care for our forces that will be
necessary during this interim period. How long it's going to take remains to
be seen. But I'm hoping that we can accelerate the reduction of the size of
that commitment.
In essence, Churchill always said that victory is certainly far more agreeable
than defeat, but doesn't necessarily provide any satisfactory answers. In this
particular case, we still see a situation in Kosovo where we achieved a victory
over Milosevic's forces. Yet, we can see also the animosities and the ethnic
hatreds. I've said in the past that the people would rather dig fresh graves
than heal old wounds. So we've given the people in Kosovo an opportunity to
return to a level of self-government and autonomous action. Whether they take
this and build upon it--or whether they squander it--remains to be seen.
Our goal was to do exactly what we did--stop the killing, get the Serb forces
out, and get the Kosovar people and Albanians back into Kosovo to their homes,
with an opportunity for self-government. Those were the stated political
objectives. We have achieved that. The question is whether or not they will
take that and build upon it. We've achieved our military objective.
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