Critical gubernatorial campaigns and the contentious issues that could decide them

Judy Woodruff:

Control of Congress is very much on the ballot in this year's midterm elections, but so is control of dozens of governor's seats.

Lisa Desjardins has more.

Lisa Desjardins:

Democrats and Republicans alike are hoping to flip some governor's mansion this year; 36 states and three territories have gubernatorial matchups this midterm season.

Today, we will be diving into three tossup races, Oregon, Arizona and Wisconsin. To find out what issues are animating those races, I'm joined by Dirk VanderHart with Oregon Public Broadcasting, Zac Schultz of PBS Wisconsin, and Yvonne Wingett Sanchez with The Washington Post.

Thank you to all three of you.

We're going to get into your fascinating gubernatorial races in a second. But, first, just in general, I want to get to what is at stake here.

And I want to start, in particular, in Oregon, with you, Dirk. It's festival season. Can you paint a picture of the season there? And, in particular, how does the governor's race loom? What is that stake in your state?

Dirk VanderHart, Oregon Public Broadcasting:

It's actually very hot and smoky here right now, unseasonably hot.

And I would say that voters here are angsty or even upset. They're looking at rising crime rates. They're looking at increased homelessness, particularly here in Portland. And I think they're really reevaluating whether this very traditionally Democratic state needs to continue with the same leadership or whether they should look to some other options.

Lisa Desjardins:

All right, let's move over across the way to Wisconsin and to you, Zac.

When I think of Wisconsin, I think of your lakes and streams. I know trout season just ended. But adding to all of that, you have got quite a hot governor's race. What does the governor's race mean there? And tell me about the spending.

Zac Schultz, PBS Wisconsin:

The spending is astronomical. We have never seen anything like it in this state. And we're used to expensive, nasty elections, close elections over the last 20 years.

And we have never seen this amount of money being poured in, double triple what we have seen in the past. And people are seeing it on their televisions. They're seeing on the Internet. I'm hearing from people saying, my kids can't even watch YouTube without hearing ads come up about politics, asking me, who are these people?

Lisa Desjardins:

Yvonne, you heard Dirk there say, in Oregon, it's unseasonably hot.

I understand, in Arizona, Yvonne, that it is in the 90s or approaching the 90s this week, but obviously a lot of attention your governor's race.

And my question is, what does the governor's mansion mean in that state? Why is it so important? Take us into the dynamics there.

Yvonne Wingett Sanchez, The Washington Post:

This race, more than any other race on the ballot, is really a test of which direction we're going to go over the next four years.

Are we going to plunge further into this realm of election denialism, or are we going to try to settle that the 2020 election was free, fair and accurate, and we're going to move on with an eye towards 2024?

Lisa Desjardins:

So, let's stay with that and that very supercharged, now nationally watched race for governor in Arizona.

And I want to show some of the ads that are running there in particular. On the Republican side, candidate Kari Lake is a former TV anchor. There, you see her. She's been unconventional, there throwing hammers, other things at televisions, basically saying she doesn't trust the media.

And then, for the Democrats, they are running the secretary of state in Arizona, Katie Hobbs. She's less visible, but she's been going after Kari Lake in ads like this one you see here, saying that she's an extremist.

So, can you take us into this race? Where is Secretary of State Hobbs and her campaign? Why hasn't she been out more, do you think? And then what exactly does Kari Lake, the Republican, believe, in particular about elections, as you're saying?

Yvonne Wingett Sanchez:

Katie Hobbs is doing these small, sort of conventional campaign meet-and-greets across metro Phoenix, where 60 percent of the state's voters live. And this is an area that decides major races.

You cannot win Arizona without winning Maricopa. She has a much lower-key presence. And she would argue that this is a more effective way of greeting voters and being able to really delve into issues in a more traditional way, one-on-one, looking people in the eye.

Kari Lake, on the other hand, has really taken it to Hobbs for refusing to debate her. She is often seen as the face, as the leading star in viral videos that highlight Hobbs' refusal to meet her on the debate stage, to talk to her in a way or to talk to voters in a way that we have done for decades, on the debate stage.

And though she's trying to soften some of her rhetoric around the 2020 election more recently, it's very clear that Kari Lake is still stuck on 2020. She has really made this election about an allegiance to Donald Trump or not. And that is going to be the big thing that voters are going to decide on.

And the polls suggest that Kari Lake could win.

Lisa Desjardins:

Zac, you in Wisconsin, in the Badger State, have an incumbent governor, Tony Evers, trying to survive in a toss-up race. And you mentioned one of the issues we have heard today about crime.

And I wanted to point to an exchange that happened in the debate between the two candidates for governor just on Friday. Let's listen to this.

Tim Michels (R), Wisconsin Gubernatorial Candidate: I'm going to stand with law enforcement. Why? Because the hardworking, taxpaying, law-abiding citizens are really fearful of the surge in crime that we have had in Wisconsin over the last two years.

Gov. Tony Evers (D-WI):

It isn't just about talking tough, believe me. It is about providing the resources, so that those police officers can get the job, the training that needs — that maybe needs to be happening.

Lisa Desjardins:

One thing I liked about that debate was it really was so substantive. You didn't see the fireworks we have seen in some other debates.

But I want to ask about crime rate. That is a very serious issue in Wisconsin. How much is that a factor for voters? And what's changing? What does that mean in the race right now?

Zac Schultz:

Oh, absolutely. The polling is showing that voters are concerned about crime, especially in our largest city, Milwaukee. We are seeing skyrocketing gun crimes and murder rates. And there's a crime on daily basis that Republicans are blasting out to the rest of the state as fast as they possibly can.

They think this is a winning issue that will override every other issue out there, except maybe inflation, which they also think is on their side. Democrats are trying to take a more nuanced approach on crime. They're talking about funding for local police departments. They're saying that the Republicans that control the legislature haven't given enough money for Governor Evers to sign to give to locals, and that that's the reason why crime is up.

And they're talking about COVID rates and things like that and that issue on crime. But Republicans think this is the winning issue for them, this is what gets them all the way home.

Lisa Desjardins:

Briefly, how's that playing vs. abortion, which I know Democrats are raising?

Zac Schultz:

Yes, absolutely. And that's what the Democrats want to talk about. It has been playing up recently mainly because the Republican, Tim Michels, has had trouble staying on a consistent message on abortion.

He early on in the campaign was absolutely no exemptions for rape or incest in Wisconsin, which is what the law currently says. And then, later on, he said, well, if the Republicans sent me a bill that said that, I would do that. And, just yesterday, he ran into a problem where he said, well, I'm not going to be arresting doctors.

Well, the current law does allow for doctors to be arrested if they perform an abortion. And his campaign had to clarify, well, he wouldn't do the arresting. It will be police or local DAs who will be prosecuting those crimes.

Lisa Desjardins:

Dirk, let's go out to Oregon, then, a very dramatic race there as well.

And we know that among the issues you raised, the cost of living. In particular, rents in Oregon have really been skyrocketing. Can you talk about how that factors in the race? And why in the world are we talking about a toss-up gubernatorial race in deep blue Oregon anyway?

Dirk VanderHart:

I mean, Oregon has been dealing with a housing crisis for years. We have known it. And it's only gotten worse after COVID.

I think cost of living consistently polls on the top of voters' concerns this year. But it also is just linked, as I mentioned, with the homelessness crisis that is continuing and is often debated as one and the same, with the candidates talking about increasing the amount of housing production as a means to both lower rents and to sort of address the homeless crisis.

But to the point of the competitive race here. Yes, it's been fascinating. It's garnered far more national attention than Oregon is used to. The president was just in town. Elizabeth Warren will be campaigning with the Democrat. And that's because we have three major well-funded viable candidates this year.

We have the former House Speaker Tina Kotek. She's the Democratic nominee. We have a former House Republican leader in Christine Drazan. And then we have a former Democratic state senator named Betsy Johnson who left the party last year and is mounting an unaffiliated run for governor where she's sort of trying to paint both parties as evil and wants to present herself as this unifier, this centrist.

Lisa Desjardins:

A very interesting situation. And also different among your states is who's voting.

Very briefly, if you all could just say in a couple of words. I will go and ask each of you separately. Do you think there will be an increase in turnout this year? Or are you sensing lower turnout?

Dirk, quickly?

Dirk VanderHart:

I'm sensing big turnout. This three-way race has people really, really motivated.

Lisa Desjardins:

Zac, what do you think about turnout there in Wisconsin?

Zac Schultz:

Well, we will be down from the presidential rate of above 70 plus percent, but probably mid-50s, which is still pretty good for Wisconsin midterms.

Lisa Desjardins:

And, Yvonne, all that heat in Arizona, is that going to lead to more voters or not so many?

Yvonne Wingett Sanchez:

I think more voters. I think we could see record for a turnout race.

Lisa Desjardins:

Well, we will be watching, along with all of you.

And we thank you so much for all of your reporting and for your time today, Dirk VanderHart, Zac Schultz, and Yvonne Wingett Sanchez. Thank you to all of you.