Election surveys highlight important issues that led to voters’ decisions in midterms

Judy Woodruff:

And while several key races, as you have heard, are yet to be called, we are getting a better look at why people voted the way they did.

Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter is here with us to break down some interviews with voters.

So, Amy, you have been looking at these big surveys done by the Associated Press. It does look, as we have been saying, the big wave on the part of Republicans didn't materialize. But what about independent voters? You frequently have looked, talked about how important they are.

Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:

Yes.

I have been talking about them incessantly for years, because what we have seen in midterm elections, especially these last four midterm elections, when the party out of power — so, in this case, it would be Republicans — wins independent voters by double digits, that's when they have big gains.

In this case, independent voters, well, they actually — in the AP survey, they actually broke for Democrats this time around, 42 percent to 39 percent. And we're seeing in the other exit polls similar margins or maybe even a little bit of a smaller margin, but a similar story, which is Republicans, to win — to win big on election night, needed to win big with swing voters.

We talk a lot about everybody looking at their party's base. Those folks are important. But you can win your base, but if you're losing independent voters, or at least not winning them by big margins, it's hard to put up big numbers.

Judy Woodruff:

So interesting.

So, when it comes to issues, we talked a lot in the weeks leading up to the election about the economy, the role it could play. What do you find about how that turned out?

Amy Walter:

Well, it was clear that the economy was a really important issue for voters. There's no doubt about that.

But when we look at how voters viewed the economy just through the lens, do you think it's good or bad, that didn't tell the whole story. If you look at voters who said, for example, I think that the economy is not so good, so they didn't think that it was good, they didn't think it was poor, they kind of were — we talked about meh.

Judy Woodruff:

Meh.

Amy Walter:

They were sort of meh about the economy. Those folks actually supported Democrats, which leads to this question about, well, why — if they think the economy is not doing well, and I'm sure many of those voters also disapproved of the job the president was doing on the economy, did they still vote for Democrats?

And the answer, of course, this there were a lot of other issues that were being decided, obviously, abortion being one of those…

Judy Woodruff:

Yes.

Amy Walter:

… opinions about other issues that were going on in their state.

And so while the economy was a driver, even folks who weren't feeling great about it were willing to support the party that's in charge.

Judy Woodruff:

So you mentioned the president.

We know, often, midterms are seen as a referendum on the president who is in office at the time. How did the role of Joe Biden turn out? What did that turn out to be?

Amy Walter:

Well, it was actually what Democrats had wanted to do for many months in this election, was to make it less of a referendum than a choice, a choice between President Biden, but also Donald Trump, or maybe MAGA-ism.

President Biden would go on the trail a lot talking about, this isn't your father's Republican Party. We're fighting here for the soul of America. You heard a lot about election denialism and protecting democracy on the campaign trail. And what you saw from voters was exactly that. Many of them believed that, yes, while they didn't — they didn't necessarily approve of Biden, those who somewhat disapproved of Biden still ultimately ended up vote — splitting their vote for Democrats and Republicans.

But many of the folks who said, I really like — I want to make this an election about the economy or about Joe Biden were also cross-pressured because they didn't like what they were seeing on the Republican side.

And the interesting thing, Judy, once we have all the data back, it'll be fascinating to go through all of it. But it seems to me, in these last two midterm elections, the challenge for Republicans has been, they have all the baggage of MAGA-ism and Trumpism without Trump on the ballot to help turn out voters who just don't turn out unless Trump is on the ballot.

And so it became a choice between the sort of Trump wing and Biden, but, without Trump on the ballot, wasn't able to turn out some of those infrequent voters who potentially could have helped Republicans do a little bit better.

Judy Woodruff:

So, another issue that we had spent time talking about earlier this year, abortion, after the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade…

Amy Walter:

That's right.

Judy Woodruff:

… in the end, how did that factor in to what we saw last night?

Amy Walter:

Well, we saw 38 percent of voters saying this was a very important factor. And, not surprisingly, 68 percent of those folks went with the Democrats.

So it was pretty clear, as we saw over the summer, when we talked about seeing the shift in attention off of just Joe Biden, it wasn't just a referendum on Joe Biden, but it was also about a lot of other things.

And when I talked to a Democrat this morning, his argument was where Democrats did very well was they were able to link Trumpism, the January 6, and this decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, because it was all sort of in the same part, right? This was not just theoretical, what it would mean to have Republicans in charge, but it was actually in front of voters all across the country.

Judy Woodruff:

So it was preserving — it was all about democracy and about…

Amy Walter:

That's right.

(CROSSTALK)

Judy Woodruff:

… this argument of women's reproductive freedom.

Amy Walter:

That's right.

Judy Woodruff:

Amy Walter, so fascinating to be able to look at what voters were saying, over 100,000 of them.

Amy Walter:

I — that's right.

Judy Woodruff:

Thank you very much.

Amy Walter:

Thank you.