Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on Republican primaries, Democrats’ legislative victories

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• Judy Woodruff:

  President Biden is on vacation in South Carolina and Congress is on August recess, but the news in politics has not slowed down.

  Primary elections are being closely watched in Wyoming, as Laura just reported, and in Alaska. The president is set to sign the Inflation Reduction Act tomorrow, and fallout continues from the FBI search of Donald Trump's home.

  Here to analyze it all, our regular Politics Monday team, Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter and Tamara Keith of NPR.

  Hello to both of you. It is time for Politics Monday.

  And, as we just heard from Laura Barrón-López, Tam, there is a lot to talk about. We have got some big primaries this week. Everybody's watching Wyoming. What's at stake in this race for Liz Cheney?

• Tamara Keith, National Public Radio:

  Well, Liz Cheney is running like someone who has nothing to lose. And, in fact, she basically does have nothing to lose at this point.

  She made a decision back around January 6, a calculation that standing up for the Constitution was more important to her than her congressional seat, because there are plenty of people, plenty of Republicans who agree with her, but none who are going to have a straight-to-camera TV ad saying that former President Trump lied and incited a riot.

  And, as a result, she is almost certainly going to lose. There are not enough Democrats in Wyoming to help her win. And, that said, she has certainly elevated herself as a voice in politics. And she obviously comes from a — has the Cheney name and is unlikely to disappear from the political scene, certainly.

• Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:

  Yes. I…

• Judy Woodruff:

  So, Amy, I mean, you hear a lot — not just hear. There are a lot of Democrats who are changing their registration, but it's a Republican…

• Amy Walter:

  And a lot of Democrats nationally who are writing checks to her.

  She has a very big bank account right now. She's not going to spend it all down even in this primary. You can't spend that much money in Wyoming. But I do think the issue of the short-term and long-term consequences is really important here.

  Almost everybody who voted for impeachment will have paid a short-term political cost. I think what Liz Cheney is looking at is, in the future, maybe in the not-so-far-away future, how history is going to judge her.

  But the other important thing, Judy, is, how primaries are structured is a really important point, I think. Alaska is also holding a primary tomorrow. Lisa Murkowski, the senator, Republican senator from Alaska, voted to impeach Donald Trump. She is going to survive in Alaska because, for the first time ever, Alaska now has a top four primary.

  Everybody runs on the same ballot. The top four vote-getters will go on. The other people who voted in the House against impeaching Donald Trump, they also are from states that have a top two primary ballot. Everybody runs on the same ballot.

  So, some of the issue is, yes, if you have a Democrat-Republican primary, that is hard to win if you go up against your party or, in this case, go up against the former president. But, in these other — the process is another important piece of all of this.

• Judy Woodruff:

  The process is, no question.

  But, once again, Tam, former President Trump is at the center of what we are talking about in American politics.

• Amy Walter:

  Yes.

• Tamara Keith:

  Yes.

• Judy Woodruff:

  And we are just — just a week ago today, we were looking at the news of the FBI having searched the home at Mar-a-Lago, the former president's Florida estate, and the repercussions keep coming.

  What do we see right now as the political consequences of what's gone on there?

• Tamara Keith:

  The political consequence, or the political takeaway for me is that this consolidated support behind Donald Trump.

  It proved once again that he is sort of this all-powerful figure in the Republican Party, because you have Republicans of all stripes, rather than — some are just sort of ignoring the what did he have in his house and just attacking the FBI. Others are defending him, even without knowing all of the facts.

  He — I mean, he is sitting back and watching people who could be 2024 primary challengers instead criticizing the FBI. And I would love to talk about the degradation of trust in institutions, but here is just example number one. Attacking the FBI is seen as completely acceptable by Republican politicians.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Attacking it, and violence. And we saw a man shot.

  (CROSSTALK)

• Amy Walter:

  There are consequences, certainly, for this.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Exactly.

• Amy Walter:

  And, look, I think it may help consolidate some support around Donald Trump, maybe even help him in 2024. I don't think it's good for his party in 2022.

  For Republicans in this midterm election, the path to victory has been pretty clear for a long time now. Make the election about Joe Biden, who has an approval rating right now around 39 or 40 percent, and about the economy, in which voters are pessimistic and think that Biden and Democrats aren't doing a good job and believe Republicans would do better.

  That's what you make the campaign about. The more of the campaign is about Donald Trump, January 6, abortion, the better it is for Democrats. It becomes really a choice election, instead of a referendum. And even if it is a referendum between Biden and Trump, that's probably pretty good for Democrats, not very good for Republicans.

• Judy Woodruff:

  So the White House may not have set out for this to happen.

• Amy Walter:

  Right.

• Judy Woodruff:

  They said they didn't know anything about this…

• Tamara Keith:

  Yes.

• Amy Walter:

  Right.

• Judy Woodruff:

  … this FBI search, Tam, but it may turn out to be — because it elevates the former president, it may turn out to be something that works to their benefit.

• Tamara Keith:

  Well, and I had been reporting even before all of this happened that President Biden had been mentioning Donald Trump's name more in his speeches, that — and the take-home from President Biden's pollster and from others that I talked to was, well, nothing motivates voters more than Donald Trump.

  Now, that's also true of Republican voters, but it's very true of Democratic voters. That said, President Biden and the White House are trying to put a focus on all of these things that they have actually accomplished, despite months of everyone assuming that there was no way that they would actually accomplish those things.

• Amy Walter:

  And let's be really clear too.

  The reason that Donald Trump is in the spotlight is because Republicans are keeping him there. They very easily could have said, you know what, we should wait for more evidence, we should step back and let the department and the FBI do their job, and then we will come out.

  But when you have the House minority leader immediately saying, when we take control of Congress, we're investigating this and we're going to oust the Department of Justice — the head of the Department of Justice, that's not sort of sitting back and letting the election be about anything else.

• Judy Woodruff:

  I mean, they said to the attorney general, clear your calendar.

• Amy Walter:

  Yes, exactly.

• Judy Woodruff:

  We're coming after you.

• Amy Walter:

  Exactly.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Tam, what about this, though? You mentioned the Democrats. Now they have something they can talk about. The Inflation Reduction Act passed.

  Is that something that could work to their benefit? Is it something that voters can hang on to?

• Tamara Keith:

  You know, I saw this ad today that Raphael Warnock put out, the senator from — Democratic senator from Georgia, all about the burn pit legislation. That's bipartisan legislation. It's focused on something that people care about, veterans care about.

  You have now any number of pieces of legislation that senators can put out ads about. Progressive senators can say, look, we have done something about climate change. This is the most sweeping climate change. Other progressive candidates can say, look at this gun legislation. Yes, it was less than we wanted, but this gun legislation actually accomplished something.

  So they have things to point to. And, again, going back to the president's pollster, he said, like two months ago, they didn't have that many things to point to. Now they do.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Can it make a difference?

• Amy Walter:

  I would say the thing that made — has made the most difference and probably is helping Democrats the most is the fact that gasoline has gone down a dollar since the beginning of the summer.

  And that is — the pinch that people are feeling is a little bit less. We're seeing a little bump right now in consumer confidence, and for people who aren't feeling quite as pinched in their day-to-day expenses, although inflation still is taking a big bite. And I do think that still is going to be a big, big, big issue in the '22 midterms.

• Judy Woodruff:

  The inflation numbers seem to be easing off, but, in terms of what people are seeing…

• Amy Walter:

  Exactly. Exactly.

  (CROSSTALK)

• Tamara Keith:

  And feeling.

• Judy Woodruff:

  And feeling — it's the gas pump. It's the grocery store.

• Amy Walter:

  Yes.

• Tamara Keith:

  And, of course, there are a lot of Republicans who wish they could just focus on that, and not Trump.

• Amy Walter:

  Right.

• Judy Woodruff:

  But we keep talking about these other things, don't we?

• Amy Walter:

  We do. Here we go.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Tamara Keith, Amy Walter, thank you both.

• Amy Walter:

  You're welcome.

• Tamara Keith:

  You're welcome.