What Republicans and Democrats are focusing on for midterm elections

Judy Woodruff:

We're now less than three months away from the midterm elections.

And as Democrats hope recent legislative successes will bolster them this fall, Republicans are betting they can win back control of Congress by emphasizing economic concerns.

Joining me now to discuss all this and more are two pollsters who have teamed up to research voters' attitudes.

Joel Benenson is a Democratic strategist who worked on Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton's presidential campaigns. And Neil Newhouse was the lead pollster for Mitt Romney and John McCain's presidential bids.

Hello to both of you. Welcome to the "NewsHour."

Your latest polling report, I found it fascinating. So there's a lot to ask you about.

Neil Newhouse, let me start with you. As you hear what voters are saying, what did you pick up as the main issues on their minds as they approach these elections?

Neil Newhouse, Republican Strategist:

Judy, first of all, thanks for having us on. It's always a pleasure to talk to you about this stuff.

The first and foremost issue people are talking about is the cost of living, is rising prices, is making ends meet. Americans don't feel their income is going as far as it used to. Gas prices have gone up, grocery prices. And Americans are feeling it. They're cutting back.

Something like 80 percent of Americans say that they have been impacted by the rising costs. And they have had to try to make adjustments. So it is an economic election. It's been that way probably for almost a year now. We first started seeing data like this back in July.

And, essentially, it hasn't really changed since then. But it's a pocketbook campaign right now and pocketbook economy. And that's what this election right now is revolving around, again, with the issue of abortion now surfacing over the last couple of months. So that's certainly what people are talking about as well.

But it's economy and then kind of social issues.

Judy Woodruff:

Well, and that's what I want to ask you, Joel Benenson, then.

How do you read what voters are saying?

Joel Benenson, Democratic Strategist:

Well, I think there are two things.

I have a mantra when it comes to elections. I generally say that they're about big things, not small things. They're about the future, not the past, and it's about their lives, not your life. That doesn't mean candidates' bios don't matter.

I think there's a lot more going on in people's lives today than the economic concerns, which are very salient in the data. There's no question about that. But on an array of other issues — and I think we saw this in Kansas recently — there are things that are very motivating to voters in the center, for example.

Independent voters in the survey we did together, Neil and I — and we do work together quite frequently — very strong on wanting to protect choice and a woman's right to choose. On tax fairness issues, they are closer to where Democrats are than where Republicans are. They don't think corporations need tax breaks. They think working people and average people do.

So I think that we can say the economy is going to be front and center, but then which party is going to be able to make a values argument that's going to connect with those voters in the center, I think, is the party that is going to do better. And I'm not sure that the Republicans are in that place, even on things like lowering the cost for prescription drugs, which — and letting Medicare negotiate, which Republicans just voted against.

The biggest purchaser of prescription drugs in this country, and we're not going to let them negotiate the prices down for the American people, particularly seniors? It's absurd.

Judy Woodruff:

So…

(CROSSTALK)

Judy Woodruff:

Go ahead, Neil.

Neil Newhouse:

But, Joel, even in our own polling, we showed Republicans with a 10-point advantage on rebuilding the economy.

Republicans have a significant advantage on economic issues. And you want to bring all these other issues in — and, certainly, abortion is a key issue. But on pocketbook issues, we're going to have a significant advantage.

And abortion is not going to be on the ballot, as it was in Kansas, in every other state in the country in November. It's going to be a key issue. But it's not on the ballot.

(CROSSTALK)

Judy Woodruff:

What about that?

Joel Benenson:

Yes, some of that's right, Neil.

But I think how people define the economy in their own lives is going to be on the ballot. And I think, when it comes to that, the point I'm making is, they are more aligned with where Democrats are on issues, whether it's about prescription drugs, whether it's around tax fairness, and even issues like minimum wage and Fair Pay Act.

I think that you can't just say the economy writ large is going to color everything. I think people are going to see their lives in this conversation. And which party is going to convince them that they're going to do a better job, if you're working or middle-class American, of addressing the economic needs and pain points that I have?

I think it's not crystal clear that Republicans have that advantage at all.

Judy Woodruff:

So, Neil Newhouse, how do you see Republicans adjusting their message to what happened in Kansas and, frankly, what Joel was just describing about these votes on lowering prescription drug prices?

Neil Newhouse:

Well, Judy, I think — I think Americans want to see — they want to see results.

And the Biden administration's had a year-and-a-half with complete control of Congress, and they finally get something done at the last minute. It is — I think it's really too little too late.

I think Americans want to have something in their pockets now. They are frustrated with the dysfunction in D.C. and the inability of the Democrats get their act together for over a year to get this done.

So it's good that some of this stuff has passed. But you look at the rate of inflation, you look at — the previous segment talked about the Inflation Reduction Act. Just because they named it that doesn't mean that's what it's going to do.

How do you spend trillions of dollars in government spending and reduce inflation? It's — I think Americans are going to see through a lot of this and come back to the — to a sensible conclusion in November.

Judy Woodruff:

And, Joel, I want you to respond to that.

And, I mean, we did have a segment earlier in the program. William Brangham interviewed an economist talking about how people still feel, yes, the rate of inflation is slowing, but people are still hurting from high prices, especially people in the lower-income brackets.

Joel Benenson:

Well, they are.

But we're also seeing some economic trends that are up. We have seen positive job growth. We have seen positive wage growth. I think — I'm not a person who believes that the stock market is a measure of anything, but I think a lot of people are hearing better news on the macroeconomic front to some extent.

I don't disagree with Neil on the point about inflation. All I'm saying is that, when people make their choices on a personal level, there are an array of issues that connect with them viscerally, that are important to the values that they preach at home, that they preach in their churches and their synagogues.

And I think this doesn't come down to the macroeconomic conversation that economists have. It has, who's going to do a better job of protecting people like me who may be living paycheck to paycheck, who are working hard for our money, and who's going to care more about the fat cats on Wall Street, if you will, in their vernacular that you hear in focus groups all the time?

And I think that's a contrast between Democrats and Republicans. And I think we can have a macroeconomic debate or we can have a debate about the economic lives of people, and I think people tend to trust Democrats more.

And Neil and I have been in elections against each other sometimes where we had to make a case in a difficult economy. And it's by connecting with…

(CROSSTALK)

Joel Benenson:

… values.

Judy Woodruff:

So, I'm going to have to leave it there by saying, this makes me want to come back to talk to you all again, and in good time, before this election.

Thank you so much, Joel Benenson, Neil Newhouse. Very good to see both of you. Thank you.

Joel Benenson:

Thank you, Judy.