PHILIP MORRIS U.S.A.
To: Dr. Robert B. Seligman Date: March 31, 1981
From: Myron Johnston
Subject: Young Smokers - Prevalence, Trends, Implications, and Related
For over fifteen years certain demographic and social trends have been
moving in directions favorable to industry growth. Now, one by one, these
powerful social and demographic factors are turning against us, and by 1985 all will
be operating against us.
The trends are:
1. After increasing for over a decade, the prevalence of teenage smoking is
now decling sharply.
2. After increasing for over a decade, the average daily consumption of
teenage smokers is declining.
3. After increasing 18 percent from 1967 to 1976, the absolute number of
15- 19 year-olds will decline 19 percent during the 1980's, with the period
of sharpest decline beginning in 1981.
4. Beginning in 1981 the absolute number of 20-24 year-olds (the ages
during which average daily cigarette consumption increases most rapidly) will begin to decline, after increasing for the past 20 years.
5. For the first time in a decade of polling, average daily cigarette
consumption as reported on the National Panel has declined.
6. In 1985, after declining for nearly a decade, the number of people in
the age group most disposed to quit smoking (ages 45-54) wi11 begin to increase dramatically.